THE BRILLIANCE OF THE HOSSA DEAL
While from a pure hockey standpoint, letting Martin Havlat get his money in Minnesota (6 years, $30MM) rather than Chicago was a sound decision. While he brought the United Center crowd to its feet more than a couple times this year, the fact is that it's probably wise to let him take his shoulder, groin, and concussion elsewhere, with our sincere thanks and fondest good wishes.
Now about the Hossa deal...
Again, from a pure hockey standpoint, view this as a Hossa-for-Havlat deal, straight up. Hossa averages almost 34 goals a season. Havlat's best goal total was 31, when he was Hossa's teammate in Ottawa. Sure, he's been on the shitty end of the Stanley Cup Final handshake line two years running, but getting to the Final, and ultimately winning the Cup, is what the Hawks are all about these days. Whether it's this year (possible, not likely) or somewhere in the next 5 (very likely), this is the objective. Plus, you got Tomas Kopecky thrown in, and you've got a hitter up front, for a relatively paltry $1.2MM/per.
Hossa signed for 12 years and just under $63 million. It comes out to an average of about $5.2MM a year. Now here's the brilliant part..
Of those 12 years, the last 4 are worth a combined total of around $3.5MM. Which means the first 8 years average out at over $7MM/per. So the Hawks will have the option to buy out the final 4 years, $3.5MM, which will be a cap hit of $1.75MM spread out over double the length of the term, 8 years. $200,000 a year. A bargain.
So, in effect, Hossa signed an 8-year deal worth $7MM/year, in which the Hawks are only taking a $5MM/year cap hit.
I'm no salary cap expert, but that's pretty damn brilliant to me.
As long as I'm giving out thanks and good wishes, Nikolai Khabibulin and Matt Walker each got 4 year deals yesterday, with Walker getting $7MM from Tampa Bay and Khabi getting $15MM from Edmonton.
Also, I feel Earl Sleek's pain as Sami Pahlsson signed for 3 years, and a little over $7MM. While my heartbreak is softened by the arrival of John "BOOM!" Madden, you couldn't help but notice his arrival coincided with Fugly's over-the-head lightbulb going on.
Posted by Forklift at 7/2/2009 8:35 AM 
Categories: Chicago Blackhawks
Tags: Chicago Blackhawks Marian Hossa
Categories: Chicago Blackhawks
Tags: Chicago Blackhawks Marian Hossa
The signing of Madden does soften the loss of Pahlsson a little bit. I really hope Bolland steps up next yr and earns that contract. With Hossa on his side, he should get better.
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That John Madden is tough. Tough like Tough Actin' Tinactin.
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Madden has been one of the best players against Crosby over the past few years. He's a top-notch defensive centerman, and I think that you're probably better off with him than Pahlsson.
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For those looking to see Kane and Toews sign similar salary cap friendly deals, I wouldn't hold your breath. Hossa, Zetterberg, and Franzen signed deals that go into the twilight of their careers and possibly into retirement. Contracts like that to 20 year olds puts the end of them in their early 30's.
Only way I see these types of deals happening with Kane and Toews is if there's an opt out clause after year 8 or something (which would be another brilliant way to structure a deal for really young players in the salary cap era).
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Why not give The Three contracts similar to Hossa's, with a shitload of low-number years at the back end to lower the cap hit?
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I would jump for joy if they agreed to the same deal, Fork. Since Toews and Kane are 21 and 20 respectively, it wouldn't make sense (for them) to sign 12 year deals with the last 4 getting paid out less than a mil a year. That means they'll be making Adam Burish money during their prime years.
If they agree to this type of deal, I'm sure Tallon would let them use his dick as the pen to sign, but I just don't see it making sense to a 20 year old unless there's a player buyout clause.
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Maybe more than 12 years...hell, give them 25 year deals with a bunch of low-ball numbers at the end, and that way you get a lower cap average. Give them a shitload of money (the Hawks certainly have it), and cushion the cap hit with the meager years at the end.
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Two words....Lifetime Contracts.
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Now, I'm not saying they are similiar players. But do we want to give DiPietro style contracts to Kane Toews or Keith?
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> So the Hawks will have the option to buy out the final 4 years, $3.5MM, which will be a cap hit of $1.75MM spread out over double the length of the term, 8 years. $200,000 a year. A bargain.
Not really.
Calculating the cap hit each season on a buyout is a bit more complicated than that.
http://www.nhlscap.com/cap_faq.htm#buyouts
It's essentially the scheduled cap hit each year less the buyout savings (the difference between that year's originally scheduled salary payment and that year's actual buyout payment).
Buyout cap hit savings each year = buyout salary savings for the same year.
As Hossa would be very much over the age of 25, a buyout of the last four years of this contract would cost the Hawks 2/3 of the $3.5MM owed ($2.333MM). This would be spread out over eight years at $0.292MM per.
Assuming that the $3.5MM is scheduled to be paid equally over the last four years of the contract, the original salary due per year would be $0.875MM.
The Hawks would thus be saving 0.875-0.292 = $0.583MM per year for the first four years after the buyout and be on the hook for an extra $0.29MM per year for the next four.
Given a scheduled cap hit of $5.23MM for those first four years, the cap hit under the buyout would be 5.23-0.583 = $4.647MM per year for the first four years and then $0.292MM per year for the final four.
So...
Buyout cost:
$292,000 per year for 8 years
Buyout cap hit:
$4.65 million per year for first four years
$292,000 per year for final four years
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Goddamnit. I said I was no salary cap expert.
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Tallon's propensity for overpaying players has really put the Hawks in a giant hole.
With Bolland, Hossa, and Madden's deals taken into account, Tallon now has only $5.5M of cap space left for this season. Keep in mind also that the cap is likely to go down next season, so 5.5 is rather optimistic. That 5.5 million needs to pay for:
1. Backup goalie - Say maybe $1M
2. Barker's new deal - Probably worth $3.5 - $4M
3. Versteeg's new deal - Probably worth $3M
4. Kane's raise next season ~ $3M more than he makes now
5. Toews' raise next season ~ $2.5M more than he makes now
That adds up to $13M total. Even if Tallon could (and there's no way he can) get a goalie, Barker and Versteeg for that 5.5M, he's got no money left for what really matters, Kane and Toews.
The only way he could get some room is by trading away someone like Campbell, but no one is going to want his contract, or even be able to afford it for that matter. The only big contract that comes off the books next season is Madden's.
Hawks are in big, big trouble!
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Why couldn't Niemi be the backup goalie? And Barker as 4 mill player? Really?
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Then again, I'm already prepared for Keith to be a red wing a in year.
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If you think Scotty Bowman would let Tallon sign Barker and Versteeg long term for the amounts of money you reference above, then you need to get back to your Hockey roundtable discussion with Pierre Mcguire and Tommy Hawk.
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If Tallon can give Bolland $18M over 5 years, what do you think Versteeg will get?
My point is that overpaying guys like Sharp, Campbell, Bolland, and Byfuglien means that Tallon won't be able to make the numbers add up next year when it matters most.
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Dave Bolland is much better than VERSTEEG!
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MGRW, is there a reason you can't just answer the questions? I never said that Versteeg was better or worse than Bolland.
The point is that the Hossa signing isn't as brilliant as some seem to think it is and in fact is probably a really dumb move as I would rather have Kane and Toews than Hossa.
Barker just signed for $3M, so that leaves $2.5M for Versteeg, Brouwer, Eager, Fraser, Niemi, Kane's raise, and Toews' raise. Maybe Tallon is using the new math or something, but I just don't see how it will all add up. The question you should be asking yourself, maybe even answering if you can, is how are all these numbers going to add up?
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I was being asked a question? I am as good as answering questions as Fork is at being an NHL salary cap expert.
I will say you need to understand a couple of things.
1. Toews and Kane are not due raises this season. That would be next.
2. Brouwer, Eager, Fraser, and Niemi are already signed for nickels and dimes.
3. Tallon (cough cough, Bowman) identified the core of the team. VERSTEEG! obviously was deemed expendable.
4. Hawks do have a plan to keep "the core" and have 39 mil committed to players next season, 28 the next next, and 15 the next next next. Meaning they have enough for the Big Three, but will likely need to part with Buffy or Sharp in order to keep guys like Andrew Ladd, who is EXTREMELY valuable.
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Yes, I understand that Toews and Kane come up next season. Read my previous posts, I've already stated this.
The reason I put Kane and Toews' raises into my numbers is that the cap is very unlikely to go up next season, and in fact will likely go down. Also, the Hawks only have one sizable contract that will exit the books next season, Madden's.
i.e. yes, we don't need to pay Toews and Kane this season. However, if the Hawks spend all the money this season we won't have any left next season.
It's easy to say things like you have that the Hawks only have $39M committed to 2010/11, but you also have to be realistic and say that that's $39M spread across only 8 players (Hossa, Sharp, Byfuglien, Kopecky, Campbell, Seabrook, Sopel, Huet, Barker). It's really $34M btw, I'm not sure where you got 39 from (the real numbers are here - http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=CHI).
So to break it down more realistically, next season's (20010/2011) committed numbers:
$31.9M right now (not including Barker)
So add the following:
+ 3.1 for Barker (signed today)
+ 2.4 for all the other guys they signed today (this assumes they don't need to be re-signed next season as well)
+ 3.5 for Duncan Keith (he's definitely worth more than Barker)
+ 13M for Kane and Toews
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$54M for 15 players. i.e. no Ladd, no Madden for 2010/11.
That leaves $1M which of course can get you 2 players at the most assuming you sign them to the league minimum. The roster minimum is 18 players isn't it? Most teams will want to carry at least 20 or 21. So you're at best 1 player below the roster limit and at worst 4 below a comfortable number.
I'm also being very conservative with the contract numbers from above. For example, I'm assuming that Kane and Toews take hometown discounts. I'm also assuming that a team doesn't come in and give one of them a huge offer sheet. What if a team like Toronto or Minny offers Kane $8M? If the Hawks have to match an offer like that, they're even more screwed. You have to keep in mind that even though these guys may want to stay, the Hawks aren't operating in a vacuum. There are lots of other teams that are in play here and would love to throw a wrench into the works.
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And I also just realized that I forgot to include Bolland in my calculations. So that's another $3M tacked on to next season's numbers (assuming he has signed this contract that no one seems to be reporting that he's signed). So in actual fact, that would be $57M for 16 players ($1M or so over the cap).
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Don't think you're currently looking at the 2009-10 Blackhawks. There will be at least one trade, maybe two.
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None of this factors in the additional salary due to Dale's not being able to figure out the mail system.
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